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Archive for the ‘Spread betting’ Category

Recently I took a contract to help NYSE Euronext Global Derivatives Exchange with a new start up business they are launching early next year.

My role was to advise and to technically architect the new trading platform and facilitate the integration of different parts of the system. You can read about this in the press:

Reuters: http://tinyurl.com/6m6bmpu
Wall Street Journal: (link expired so removed)
Financial Times: http://tinyurl.com/78jkbyo

I am coming near to the end of my role and have successfully completed the core architecture for the trading platform.

The system has many parts including a retail CFD and Financial Spread Betting platform, which has all the usual charting, mobile and various news and strategy components, as well as a professional proprietary trading gateway which accepts FIX messages. The FIX gateway is based upon the same low latency architecture as the Liffe Derivatives exchange.

The system uses a Multi-Lateral Trading Facility (MTF) to provide liquidity to the trading members.

In addition to the order matching engine, smart order router and liquidity aggregator, I also architected the clearing and settlement, treasury and regulatory and compliance workflows and sub systems too.

The platform is a complete end to end brokerage and underlying exchange in one system, with a full front end for both algorithmic and point and click trading. It covers the entire trade lifecycle and has been hard work and an amazing learning curve.

I look forward to seeing this launch in the market.

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I was looking back through my early posts and it is quite encouraging to see how far I have come. There is a specific post on me not getting stopped out properly by IG Index and me trying to figure out what happened.

It is crazy to think that I didn’t know how these things worked at all, and now I have just completed the architecture for the NYSE Euronext spread betting platform. That original post was written in July 2008. So four years ago, I just started figuring out about how a broker worked and now I am architecting order books and prop trading gateways for FIX into an MTF and also a retail platform with charting, mobile and MT4/5.

Imagine where I will be in another four years.

Hopefully running a hedge fund.

Incidentally, I know that spread betting companies will more often than not take the other side of the trade against you. By you losing money, they win. So it is not surprising they will deliberately take longer to stop you out when things go against you.

I would hope that now, these stops are automatic and not manual anymore. Certainly in the system I have designed, there are no manual steps other than risk management for a set of predefined criteria, including for very large positions. There is no manual step to closing a position.

Spread betting companies typically have what they call ‘A’ book and ‘B’ books. ‘A’ books are for traders who win a lot and ‘B’ books are for the 90% of losers. The broker will most likely take the other side of the trade for ‘B’ book clients and hedge in the underlying market for ‘A’ book clients.

This is certainly the case for IG Index, CMC, City index and LMAX, and all of their white labelled platforms.

 

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I went for the interview at NYSE (Euronext derivatives exchange) and had a job offer a couple of days later. This role is much more appealing than the existing job offer I had from Standard Bank.

The Standard Bank (South African) was appealing in that it was the safe option. It was a year contract working on an anti-fraud rules engine. A developer role using technologies I can do with my eyes shut. It wasn’t even a team lead role so very junior for me, but still paying the same rate as I got at Goldmans. So it would have been a walk in the park.

I was a little bit dreading this contract though, because I think I would have been bored senseless and also the role was way too junior for me even though the money was good.

The other role, the one at Euronext is much more sexier. It is management / TA role working on their new financial trading platform. I can’t say any more, other than to say this definitely fits in with the three plans.

It is less money and only a six month contract, but is a huge stepping stone on the way to understanding the exchange, derivatives, and trading from the inside than I could ever have hoped for.

I start on Monday.

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I have now completed the application and vetting process for my new brokers account with Interactive Brokers.

Interactive Brokers are a top end brokerage and are used by hedge funds as well as professional traders.

Through this account I now have access to trade on margin and access to options / futures / cfds etc. I can also write options should I want to.

The brokerage also offers a full API to be able to auto trade and uses the FIX protocol for which I am writing an FIX engine for.

It will take me awhile to get my head round all of their interfaces but I am looking forward to this.

I will also now have access to live streaming data in the same service rather than relying on separate feeds from different sources.

I will still use spread betting for certain circumstances as this does offer some opportunities that are not possible directly. For example shorting Japanese Government bonds; this would be very difficult without spread betting as I am not yet anywhere near being able to buy CDS.

This ushers in a new level of trading and investing for me.

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I must be getting old and grumpy as my latest strategy is to spot and short bubbles as they burst. I successfully predicted the Netflix bubble and the gold drop from 1900 to 1537.

I have been analysing as many bubbles and drops as possible, going back 10 years by looking at charts.

A bubble and its demise  is defined (by me) as a long bull run which goes hyperbolic and then either does a double top or just crashes suddenly by at least 40%.

It seems to me that this is such a common thing, there is always a bubble happening somewhere and it’s just a matter of waiting and biding time until a bubble breaks. This breaking is what intrigues me. Why does a stock just drop through the floor almost overnight.

It seems that the best drop moves occur when you have a popular stock that makes it into the news as a buy. Once you see the stock in the Times or Daily Mail as a big winner, you know it’s time to start planning to get on the short side. Then you wait until the market is weak, and critically a bad piece of news comes out about the company.

Then only enter once the price has already begun its decent past its last previous big drop. This could be a 200eMa break, or perhaps 10% or perhaps a round magic number. Each stock is different.

The next trick is getting out at the right time. Looking at a small number of stocks that have followed this pattern, it seems that after a huge drop the market will open much lower than previously closed and then rise all day. It then hangs around bouncing a few % points up and down for a few weeks.

The trick is to get out after market open in the first hour before the rise.

Following this method would have made 1000s of points on NFLX and did make me 200 points on gold.

My next target is CMG – Burritos. How can a burrito company be worth $300?

Feel free to comment and shoot this strategy down! All comments welcome.

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Well its been awhile, nearly two years since I did any serious trading (spread betting) and I have been focusing on my business, which I have now closed and then getting my skills back to cutting edge to continue doing IT contracting. Now I have all that stable with an income coming in again and its time to dust off the old books, hook up with some old friends and get trading.

I have just read the ‘Way of the Turtle’ by Curtis M Faith. It gives some good simple automatic trading strategies. I am going to code these up and see how they perform.

I have downloaded MetaTrader and am getting my head around MQ4, the scripting language to mock up trading back data tests.

I have opened an account with IGIndex again.

I’ll let you know how I get on with the back testing and share my scripts for comments.

Watch this space…..

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Not a bad little trading system. I have been using it for (apparently) one month. I am quite happy with it but the practice account only lasts for a month unless you have a proper account with them.

So, I am still looking for a practice account, preferably with spread betting, for the FOREX where I can place trades on live data but with ‘virtual’ money.

 

Anyone got any ideas?

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I set up a set of related trades as detailed in my previous post. The trade did a false break out of the triangle on the sell side through the support. This closed my trade on its stop with a minor loss. The breakout was significantly large to trigger my sell trade, but has since re-entered the bound area but not yet hit the stop for this second trade.

 

The  trade has gone against me twice, but because I have set up my stops properly, the losses will be very small.

 

I am considering adding another trade to buy as the trade travels further within the bound range with a limit about 75% up into the triangle. However, I will probably leave this one to see where it goes.

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Ascending triangle in the forex pair

 

The chart for USD / CAD pair has made quite a nice ascending triangle on the day chart. (See image above).

 

I have entered a trade at the bottom of the triangle going Long to catch any rebound to the top of the range.

I have set a stop just below the support at the bottom of the triangle and a limit just below the top of the resistance at the top of the range.

 

I have also entered an entry order at a distance of the ATR below the range SHORT to catch any breakouts going in that direction and also an entry order going LONG at the ATR distance above the bound range.

Both entry orders have stops at the range points in case it is a false breakout.

 

So in most cases, I should be in for a winner, unless I get a false breakout SHORT and a false breakout LONG.

 

This is a multi day trading strategy and I expect this trade(s) to last for several weeks.

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I have across and nice application that is free and allows you to trade FOREX major currency pairs in real time in a practice environment. It is from FXCM.

 

You can download their software for free without having to sign up giving your life story and all your important documents. The trading and charting environment is good as well.

 

You can trade right from the charts at the point where you click on the chart which I like too.

 

Does anyone know of a practice FOREX spread betting account that you dont have to send off your passport etc to?

 

 

The url is http://www.fxcm.co.uk

 

It is not spread betting, but the principle is the same with long and short capabilities in amounts in multiples of 10k lots.

 

I started with £5K virtual money on Monday and it’s now Thursday and I am up using the strategies I know from trading stocks and from the book ‘FOREX, patterns and probabilities‘ by Ed Ponsi.

My account is now £117 up which is just over 2% in four days.

 

The book is quite good and I would recommend it for anyone who is starting out trading in FOREX and needs a refreshing or wants to learn the standard strategies for technical analysis as they relate to FOREX.

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I am reading and working through the book ‘Mathematics for Economics and Finance’ at the moment by Martin Anthony and Norman Biggs.

 

I am learning the mathematics that is detailed in the trading course ‘Certificate in Quantitive Finance’ to prepare myself both for working in finance and building my trading platform.

 

At the moment I have just learnt about First order linear recurrence equations and how this relates to working out capital gained on compound interest in an account with a constant percentage rate.

 

I have always worked this out before in Excel with arduous calculations for each year, now I have the maths to do it for any year in one calculation. It is quite a buzz to see the power of mathematics at work in real life.

Why didn’t they make it this interesting at school!

 

Standard First order linear recurrence  for compound interest can be expressed in maths as:

 

yt = ayt-1 + b

 

where y is the capital at year t, a is (1 + r) where r is the interest rate as a decimal, and b is zero.

 

This gives

 

yt = (1 + r)ty0

 

or Capital after t years = (1 + r) to the power of t multiplied by the initial capital.

 

If the equation is reversed, then we can see how much we need in the bank to achieve a target t years in the future.

 

y0  = yt / (1 + r)t

 

or

 

capital needed is the desired target amount divided by (1 + the interest rate) to the power of the number of years.

 

Easy as pie!

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As you know, if you have been reading my posts, I am embarking on a journey to write my own trading system. I am focusing more on FOREX at the moment and I am looking for somewhere I can find back data for FOREX currency pairs, preferably every minute of data or thereabouts for the last 6 months.

 

Does anyone know where I might find this?

I imagine it will be a big download, but that is not a problem.

 

Any help much appreciated.

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What’s next? 

For anyone who has watched ‘The West Wing’, you know what I am talking about.

What’s next?

 

The business is 99% over. I have a few things to clear up in terms of contracts etc and also there are still some prospects out there that may come off at some point, but nothing immediate.

 

This leaves me with the greatest asset of all. Time.

I now have all the time in the world, the rest of my life ahead and I can do whatever I want.

So what to do now.

 

Well, I have learnt a hell of a lot since starting this journey a year ago, perhaps a good place to start would be to see what I have learnt and use this to form a new business plan.

 

1. I have learnt a lot about the markets, trading (both share dealing and spread betting)

 

This is mostly to do with technical analysis, the mechanism for trading, the importance of having a trading system and risk management.

 

2. I have learnt a lot about running a proper business, getting sales and productising ideas to sell to potential customers.

 

This is mostly about keeping costs down, being creative, taking that idea and making it commercially viable and then selling that idea to someone who then pays for you to build it.

This is great in a growing market, and extremely difficult in a shrinking market (as I have found).

 

3. Property would be great to buy now, but I don’t have any cash. Have not explored this avenue yet.

 

4. I love the flexibility of running my own business and the fact that this allows me to spend time with my family when I want to.

 

5. I like being the boss.

 

6. Not many of my friends understand this way of life and in fact some don’t even like to talk about it. (I had one friend who took one look at the very first paragraph of this blog and switched it off quickly as if the thought of discussing making money through assets was somehow unclean!)

 

7. I don’t mind using the telephone to call people up

 

8. I like working on my own as well as with others

 

9. Spending money is a good way of losing money not making money.

 

10. The most important aspect of anything is to have fun!

 

Into the pot, I could also throw that I need some cash in the reasonably short term to carry on paying my expenses.

 

There are some options in order of what I am thinking I might do next:

 

1. Get some contract work which I can do quite easily which is high paid and short term to build cash reserves. The downside of this, is it is back to working on someone else’s asset, the advantage is low responsibility, short term and high cash.

 

2. Go back to working on freelance work form home. The advantage of this is that I can manage my time as I like so I can keep open for opportunities, work from home to see my family more, but the disadvantage is I am not building assets and the cash is a lot less than contracting work.

 

3. Carry on with the business as a background task to keep up with the prospects we have made, pursue any low cost / low time prospects as they might arise.

 

4. Come up with a whole new business idea

 

5. Learn more about trading in its various forms and make a living through that

 

6. Carry on learning and come up with another method of making some money

 

I am going to think about this over the next few days. I have been testing the water with contract work and there still seems to some of it about although not as much as a few years ago.

 

I’ll let you know how it goes.

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I signed up for the SG Turbos Trading Challenge today. I haven’t actually placed a trade yet, but I am going to have a look at it tonight.

 

You get £10K of pseudo money and you have to trade using their system. There are prizes for the best traders (i.e. the ones with the most cash in their accounts) at the end of each month and at the end of the three month game.

 

The game started today and the winner so far has a 6% gain in one day.

 

So it is early days yet. You can also create leagues to play against each other that don’t count towards the prizes, but I cant see me doing that.

 

In return for running this game, they of course want to market their stuff to you and hope you like their trading system so much you use that instead of your existing one. As long as you know this, I think it is worth a go.

 

I’ll start placing some trades tonight and I’ll let you know how I get on.

 

For those of you who want to play (it is free) you can sign up at: http://www.sgturbos.co.uk/index.php

 

SG Turbos is run by Societe Generale.

 – Just as an addition to this post, the game is actually trading something called a Turbo. Seems like a CFD with a few differences. There is a free seminar explaining what these are on the 8th April. I think i would prefer spread betting than this but Im willing to give it a go. I might go to the seminar, I havent decided yet.

 

 

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It has been four months and probably around 500 phone calls to top marketing and advertising agencies as well as companies trying to talk to them about innovative new ideas that will make them money since I started up the new company in October.

My new business manager and I have been to many meetings and talked to many leading figures in the internet world. It never ceases to amaze me, how much mediocrity there is and how most people prefer to follow than to take a chance whilst pretending they are leading their companies forward.

An over whelming number of so called innovative figures in key positions for growing companies will not even listen to a new idea from people who have made a lot of money for people in the past.

I am amazed that there is such a degree of rigidity when approaching one’s job in the city. It is a rare find to find people are genuinely interested in listening. It seems most people, even people whose responsibility it is, is to bring new ideas to a company prefer to hunker down and pretend the world doesn’t really exist and just get through their day and appear to be doing their job.

Our business is finally taking traction now as we enter into a second round of meetings with key partners, but what a task it has been to get there.

My theory is that there are actually very few innovation centres in the world and that these are actually just one or two people in each place who are true entrepreneurs. They drive everything and everyone just talks the talk and pretends to be innovative.

Most managers and directors, wont even hear an idea. They either don’t even let you present an idea, or they think they are listening but they don’t hear. They somehow have a subconscious block to anything that might change their day to day, or make them visible to people higher up the ladder.

It is no wonder there is a recession going on with the inefficient middle manager nightmares that populate so many of the big companies. It has been said that this recession will be a recession of the middle classes. I hope it shakes out a few of the mediocre middle management whose sole purpose seems to be to pass pieces of paper to other mediocre managers either in their own organisations or in others.

It took Richard Branson a year and half to get his first advertising to get is first magazine off the ground and he spent all that time calling everyone he could. He made it and so will we.

 

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